Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 38%
1 arb excluded
$493.79
-$179.9
Smart Money Signal
6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $250.92 | $255.98 | +$5.06 | 93% 20539-1653 (22192) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 85.6¢ | $126.92 | $137.2 | +$10.28 | 50% 52086-52143 (104229) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 74.7¢ | $118.72 | — | -$118.72 | 88% 48649-6911 (55560) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $62.16 | $54.61 | -$7.55 | 52% 5827-5465 (11292) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $46.48 | — | -$46.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.7¢ | $15.68 | $54.61 | +$38.93 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $11.62 | — | -$11.62 | 80% 29203-7472 (36675) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $26.67 | — | -$26.67 | 70% 44729-19033 (63762) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97.7¢ | $21.49 | $18 | -$3.49 | 76% 24812-7703 (32515) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $15.4 | — | -$15.4 | 52% 16382-15161 (31543) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $4.8 | $20 | +$15.2 | 68% 75669-35734 (111403) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $13.45 | $8 | -$5.45 | 61% 14030-8793 (22823) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $11.05 | — | -$11.05 | 67% 13816-6882 (20698) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $16.85 | — | -$16.85 | 56% 15141-12065 (27206) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.4¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | 58% 16353-11988 (28341) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 84% 61854-12050 (73904) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 83% 28668-5871 (34539) |
Invested
$250.92
Value
$255.98
PnL
+$5.06
Record
93%
20539-1653 (22192)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$126.92
Value
$137.2
PnL
+$10.28
Record
50%
52086-52143 (104229)
Invested
$118.72
Value
—
PnL
-$118.72
Record
88%
48649-6911 (55560)
Invested
$62.16
Value
$54.61
PnL
-$7.55
Record
52%
5827-5465 (11292)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.62
Value
—
PnL
-$11.62
Record
80%
29203-7472 (36675)
Invested
$26.67
Value
—
PnL
-$26.67
Record
70%
44729-19033 (63762)
Invested
$21.49
Value
$18
PnL
-$3.49
Record
76%
24812-7703 (32515)
Invested
$15.4
Value
—
PnL
-$15.4
Record
52%
16382-15161 (31543)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$15.2
Record
68%
75669-35734 (111403)
Invested
$13.45
Value
$8
PnL
-$5.45
Record
61%
14030-8793 (22823)
Invested
$11.05
Value
—
PnL
-$11.05
Record
67%
13816-6882 (20698)
Invested
$16.85
Value
—
PnL
-$16.85
Record
56%
15141-12065 (27206)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
58%
16353-11988 (28341)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
84%
61854-12050 (73904)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
83%
28668-5871 (34539)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $255.98
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $137.2
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $18
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $20
asidjasiodja
Down — $8