Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 98¢ · $203 held · ended Oct 25

Up2¢Down98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

Total Value

$202.66

Combined PnL

$4.82

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 98¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$202.66

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$4.82

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 86.5¢	$149.94	$150.65	+$0.71	52% 5773-5390 (11163)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 94¢	$20.43	$20.07	-$0.36	63% 19263-11278 (30541)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 99¢	$18.18	$18	-$0.18	62% 40770-24941 (65711)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66¢	$9.29	$13.94	+$4.65	67% 13654-6785 (20439)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$149.94

Value

$150.65

PnL

+$0.71

Record

52%

5773-5390 (11163)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.07

PnL

-$0.36

Record

63%

19263-11278 (30541)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$18.18

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.18

Record

62%

40770-24941 (65711)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$9.29

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$4.65

Record

67%

13654-6785 (20439)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.