Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (40%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $98 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Down
5
Down 40%
$98.29
-$95.75
56.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidDown at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $53.86 | $50.48 | -$1.78 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 72.4¢ | $113.87 | $23.22 | -$90.65 | 52% 5773-5390 (11163) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98.5¢ | $20.01 | $15.01 | -$5 | 63% 19263-11278 (30541) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR<$100 | Downavg 11.6¢ | $6.5 | $5.03 | -$1.47 | 59% 1228-856 (2084) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $4.55 | +$3.15 | 56% 15000-11947 (26947) |
Invested
$53.86
Value
$50.48
PnL
-$1.78
Record
67%
13654-6785 (20439)
Invested
$113.87
Value
$23.22
PnL
-$90.65
Record
52%
5773-5390 (11163)
Invested
$20.01
Value
$15.01
PnL
-$5
Record
63%
19263-11278 (30541)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$5.03
PnL
-$1.47
Record
59%
1228-856 (2084)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$3.15
Record
56%
15000-11947 (26947)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.