Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 99¢ · $123 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Up
3
Up 100%
$122.93
-$12.25
Research grade
NeutralUp at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 67.1¢ | $121.47 | $111.96 | -$9.51 | 52% 5773-5390 (11163) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $11.81 | $8.99 | -$2.82 | 63% 19263-11278 (30541) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $1.9 | $1.98 | +$0.08 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.