Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 100¢ · $141 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 60%
$140.73
$27.67
72.6¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 79.6¢ | $85.05 | $93.83 | +$8.78 | 52% 5773-5390 (11163) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $15.8 | $31.79 | +$15.99 | 56% 15000-11947 (26947) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 78.6¢ | $12 | $14.19 | +$2.19 | 63% 19263-11278 (30541) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $0.5 | $0.7 | +$0.2 | 52% 16061-14851 (30912) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $13.32 | $0.22 | +$0.51 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
Invested
$85.05
Value
$93.83
PnL
+$8.78
Record
52%
5773-5390 (11163)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$31.79
PnL
+$15.99
Record
56%
15000-11947 (26947)
Invested
$12
Value
$14.19
PnL
+$2.19
Record
63%
19263-11278 (30541)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
16061-14851 (30912)
Invested
$13.32
Value
$0.22
PnL
+$0.51
Record
67%
13654-6785 (20439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.