Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 75%
$179.75
-$166.29
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 88.2¢ | $135.21 | $82.85 | -$52.36 | 52% 5738-5357 (11095) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $41.75 | $73.82 | +$32.07 | 56% 14969-11919 (26888) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.9¢ | $43.69 | — | -$43.69 | 83% 28349-5794 (34143) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $30.4 | — | -$30.4 | 23% 13821-47162 (60983) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $23.28 | — | -$23.28 | 71% 47646-19797 (67443) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $30.01 | $23.07 | -$6.94 | 76% 24294-7616 (31910) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.3¢ | $15.9 | — | -$15.9 | 60% 15152-9985 (25137) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.1¢ | $5.89 | — | -$5.89 | 58% 16241-11856 (28097) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $16 | — | -$16 | 67% 13585-6747 (20332) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 59% 15229-10672 (25901) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $3.55 | — | -$3.55 | 69% 69301-31636 (100937) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 84% 60686-11900 (72586) |
Invested
$135.21
Value
$82.85
PnL
-$52.36
Record
52%
5738-5357 (11095)
Invested
$41.75
Value
$73.82
PnL
+$32.07
Record
56%
14969-11919 (26888)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$43.69
Value
—
PnL
-$43.69
Record
83%
28349-5794 (34143)
Invested
$30.4
Value
—
PnL
-$30.4
Record
23%
13821-47162 (60983)
Invested
$23.28
Value
—
PnL
-$23.28
Record
71%
47646-19797 (67443)
Invested
$30.01
Value
$23.07
PnL
-$6.94
Record
76%
24294-7616 (31910)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$15.9
Value
—
PnL
-$15.9
Record
60%
15152-9985 (25137)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5.89
Value
—
PnL
-$5.89
Record
58%
16241-11856 (28097)
Invested
$16
Value
—
PnL
-$16
Record
67%
13585-6747 (20332)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
59%
15229-10672 (25901)
Invested
$3.55
Value
—
PnL
-$3.55
Record
69%
69301-31636 (100937)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
84%
60686-11900 (72586)
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