Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 53%
2 arb excluded
$347.15
-$234.78
Smart Money Signal
8 of 16 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 28.5¢ | $219.69 | — | -$219.69 | 52% 5732-5342 (11074) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 27.2¢ | $40.38 | $81.25 | +$40.86 | 58% 16229-11843 (28072) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.9¢ | $18.3 | — | -$18.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.2¢ | $22.08 | $81.25 | +$59.17 | |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Upavg 35.1¢ | $60.45 | $88.53 | +$28.08 | 60% 15115-9973 (25088) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.3¢ | $29.39 | — | -$29.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.1¢ | $31.06 | $88.53 | +$57.47 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $33.26 | $48.91 | +$15.65 | 76% 26355-8123 (34478) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.1¢ | $15.75 | — | -$15.75 | 62% 13878-8687 (22565) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $27.9 | — | -$27.9 | 76% 24117-7611 (31728) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 58.9¢ | $15.38 | $26.12 | +$10.74 | 83% 60158-11892 (72050) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $20.89 | — | -$20.89 | 62% 40698-24908 (65606) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $16.29 | — | -$16.29 | 83% 28210-5788 (33998) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.3¢ | $1.36 | — | -$1.36 | 63% 19117-11233 (30350) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $30.55 | $58.31 | +$27.76 | 56% 14956-11913 (26869) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $9.5 | — | -$9.5 | 69% 69291-31631 (100922) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $8.17 | $11.67 | +$3.5 | 79% 54764-14368 (69132) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $5.17 | $11 | +$5.83 | 23% 13817-47159 (60976) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $2.46 | $16.38 | +$13.92 | 59% 15217-10664 (25881) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 66% 13643-7182 (20825) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 67% 13565-6732 (20297) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16033-14835 (30868) |
Invested
$219.69
Value
—
PnL
-$219.69
Record
52%
5732-5342 (11074)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$40.38
Value
$81.25
PnL
+$40.86
Record
58%
16229-11843 (28072)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$60.45
Value
$88.53
PnL
+$28.08
Record
60%
15115-9973 (25088)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$33.26
Value
$48.91
PnL
+$15.65
Record
76%
26355-8123 (34478)
Invested
$15.75
Value
—
PnL
-$15.75
Record
62%
13878-8687 (22565)
Invested
$27.9
Value
—
PnL
-$27.9
Record
76%
24117-7611 (31728)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$26.12
PnL
+$10.74
Record
83%
60158-11892 (72050)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$20.89
Value
—
PnL
-$20.89
Record
62%
40698-24908 (65606)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$16.29
Value
—
PnL
-$16.29
Record
83%
28210-5788 (33998)
Invested
$1.36
Value
—
PnL
-$1.36
Record
63%
19117-11233 (30350)
Invested
$30.55
Value
$58.31
PnL
+$27.76
Record
56%
14956-11913 (26869)
Invested
$9.5
Value
—
PnL
-$9.5
Record
69%
69291-31631 (100922)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$8.17
Value
$11.67
PnL
+$3.5
Record
79%
54764-14368 (69132)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.83
Record
23%
13817-47159 (60976)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$2.46
Value
$16.38
PnL
+$13.92
Record
59%
15217-10664 (25881)
Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
66%
13643-7182 (20825)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
67%
13565-6732 (20297)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16033-14835 (30868)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
Up — $48.91
asidjasiodja
CTRDown — $0
asdaefef
CTRDown — $0
antsaslyku
Up — $26.12
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0