Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$307.1
$2.08
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $182.04 | $212 | +$29.96 | 52% 5732-5342 (11074) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.6¢ | $115.72 | $212 | +$96.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $66.32 | — | -$66.32 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $15.15 | $25.86 | +$10.71 | 56% 14956-11913 (26869) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $10.84 | $30.12 | +$19.28 | 70% 28260-12370 (40630) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.5¢ | $17.64 | — | -$17.64 | 60% 15115-9973 (25088) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $12.03 | $12.88 | +$0.85 | 69% 69291-31631 (100922) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $8.66 | $21.12 | +$12.46 | 58% 11064-8112 (19176) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $12.8 | — | -$12.8 | 67% 13565-6732 (20297) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $4.5 | $5.11 | +$0.61 | 76% 24117-7611 (31728) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 83% 28210-5788 (33998) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.5¢ | $8.9 | — | -$8.9 | 58% 16229-11843 (28072) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 59% 15217-10664 (25881) |
Invested
$182.04
Value
$212
PnL
+$29.96
Record
52%
5732-5342 (11074)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.15
Value
$25.86
PnL
+$10.71
Record
56%
14956-11913 (26869)
Invested
$10.84
Value
$30.12
PnL
+$19.28
Record
70%
28260-12370 (40630)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$17.64
Value
—
PnL
-$17.64
Record
60%
15115-9973 (25088)
Invested
$12.03
Value
$12.88
PnL
+$0.85
Record
69%
69291-31631 (100922)
Invested
$8.66
Value
$21.12
PnL
+$12.46
Record
58%
11064-8112 (19176)
Invested
$12.8
Value
—
PnL
-$12.8
Record
67%
13565-6732 (20297)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.61
Record
76%
24117-7611 (31728)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
83%
28210-5788 (33998)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8.9
Value
—
PnL
-$8.9
Record
58%
16229-11843 (28072)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
59%
15217-10664 (25881)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $25.86
PBot-6
Down — $30.12
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $12.88
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $21.12
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $5.11
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0