Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$516.17
$35.46
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $336.37 | $339.77 | +$3.4 | 93% 20303-1629 (21932) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 35.1¢ | $42.11 | $63.61 | +$21.5 | 52% 5670-5283 (10953) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 5.4¢ | $19.79 | — | -$19.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.1¢ | $22.32 | $63.61 | +$41.29 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $21.8 | $40 | +$18.2 | 57% 32395-24863 (57258) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $16.9 | $25.19 | +$8.29 | 60% 15028-9898 (24926) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $13.85 | $15.6 | +$1.75 | 56% 14897-11878 (26775) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $9.36 | $12 | +$2.64 | 58% 16156-11767 (27923) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $6.23 | $10 | +$3.77 | 83% 27973-5740 (33713) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 87% 47232-6820 (54052) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $6.25 | $5 | -$1.25 | 54% 9474-8067 (17541) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 70% 46480-19752 (66232) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 63% 18940-11157 (30097) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16000-14810 (30810) |
Invested
$336.37
Value
$339.77
PnL
+$3.4
Record
93%
20303-1629 (21932)
Invested
$42.11
Value
$63.61
PnL
+$21.5
Record
52%
5670-5283 (10953)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$18.2
Record
57%
32395-24863 (57258)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$16.9
Value
$25.19
PnL
+$8.29
Record
60%
15028-9898 (24926)
Invested
$13.85
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$1.75
Record
56%
14897-11878 (26775)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.36
Value
$12
PnL
+$2.64
Record
58%
16156-11767 (27923)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$6.23
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.77
Record
83%
27973-5740 (33713)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
87%
47232-6820 (54052)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.25
Record
54%
9474-8067 (17541)
Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
70%
46480-19752 (66232)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
63%
18940-11157 (30097)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16000-14810 (30810)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $339.77
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $40
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $25.19
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $15.6
MayorMamdani
Down — $12
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $10
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $5
thesidehustle
Down — $5
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0