Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Up 50%
$83.24
-$166.7
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 40.4¢ | $128.9 | — | -$128.9 | 52% 5647-5267 (10914) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.8¢ | $23.14 | — | -$23.14 | 60% 15015-9882 (24897) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $25.09 | $23 | -$2.09 | 62% 13762-8615 (22377) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.3¢ | $12.29 | — | -$12.29 | 58% 16129-11743 (27872) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $14.72 | $16 | +$1.28 | 76% 26083-8095 (34178) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $13.7 | $15.11 | +$1.41 | 56% 14881-11866 (26747) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.9¢ | $8.59 | — | -$8.59 | 59% 19577-13458 (33035) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $8.75 | $10.11 | +$1.36 | 76% 23816-7542 (31358) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $10.01 | +$5.21 | 69% 27824-12306 (40130) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $2.92 | $4 | +$1.08 | 83% 27963-5718 (33681) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.4¢ | $1.28 | — | -$1.28 | 63% 18916-11136 (30052) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 54% 9455-8054 (17509) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 23% 13726-45775 (59501) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $20.8 | — | -$1 | 67% 13368-6654 (20022) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 15985-14804 (30789) |
Invested
$128.9
Value
—
PnL
-$128.9
Record
52%
5647-5267 (10914)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$23.14
Value
—
PnL
-$23.14
Record
60%
15015-9882 (24897)
Invested
$25.09
Value
$23
PnL
-$2.09
Record
62%
13762-8615 (22377)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$12.29
Value
—
PnL
-$12.29
Record
58%
16129-11743 (27872)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.72
Value
$16
PnL
+$1.28
Record
76%
26083-8095 (34178)
Invested
$13.7
Value
$15.11
PnL
+$1.41
Record
56%
14881-11866 (26747)
Invested
$8.59
Value
—
PnL
-$8.59
Record
59%
19577-13458 (33035)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$1.36
Record
76%
23816-7542 (31358)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$5.21
Record
69%
27824-12306 (40130)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$2.92
Value
$4
PnL
+$1.08
Record
83%
27963-5718 (33681)
Invested
$1.28
Value
—
PnL
-$1.28
Record
63%
18916-11136 (30052)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
54%
9455-8054 (17509)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
23%
13726-45775 (59501)
Invested
$20.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
67%
13368-6654 (20022)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
15985-14804 (30789)
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