Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 63%
1 arb excluded
$346.47
-$108.48
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $196.91 | $185.69 | -$11.22 | 52% 5647-5267 (10914) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.7¢ | $121.97 | $185.69 | +$63.72 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.6¢ | $74.94 | — | -$74.94 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 31.5¢ | $73.96 | — | -$73.96 | 57% 32394-24860 (57254) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 44.3¢ | $50.15 | $67.35 | +$17.2 | 60% 15015-9882 (24897) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $31.27 | — | -$31.27 | 67% 13368-6654 (20022) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $22.63 | — | -$22.63 | 58% 11010-8076 (19086) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 28.9¢ | $10.91 | $21.74 | +$10.83 | 59% 19577-13458 (33035) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $13.47 | $16.98 | +$3.51 | 54% 9455-8054 (17509) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $13.2 | $19.42 | +$6.21 | 58% 16129-11743 (27872) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $8.6 | — | -$8.6 | 52% 15985-14804 (30789) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $8.42 | — | -$8.42 | 62% 13762-8615 (22377) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $8.69 | $9.76 | +$1.07 | 62% 40571-24869 (65440) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $2.85 | — | -$2.85 | 87% 47226-6809 (54035) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $6.2 | — | -$6.2 | 65% 13433-7163 (20596) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 70% 46473-19740 (66213) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $11.6 | $25.52 | +$13.92 | 56% 14881-11866 (26747) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 76% 23816-7542 (31358) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 83% 59673-11815 (71488) |
Invested
$196.91
Value
$185.69
PnL
-$11.22
Record
52%
5647-5267 (10914)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.96
Value
—
PnL
-$73.96
Record
57%
32394-24860 (57254)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$50.15
Value
$67.35
PnL
+$17.2
Record
60%
15015-9882 (24897)
Invested
$31.27
Value
—
PnL
-$31.27
Record
67%
13368-6654 (20022)
Invested
$22.63
Value
—
PnL
-$22.63
Record
58%
11010-8076 (19086)
Invested
$10.91
Value
$21.74
PnL
+$10.83
Record
59%
19577-13458 (33035)
Invested
$13.47
Value
$16.98
PnL
+$3.51
Record
54%
9455-8054 (17509)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$19.42
PnL
+$6.21
Record
58%
16129-11743 (27872)
Invested
$8.6
Value
—
PnL
-$8.6
Record
52%
15985-14804 (30789)
Invested
$8.42
Value
—
PnL
-$8.42
Record
62%
13762-8615 (22377)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.69
Value
$9.76
PnL
+$1.07
Record
62%
40571-24869 (65440)
Invested
$2.85
Value
—
PnL
-$2.85
Record
87%
47226-6809 (54035)
Invested
$6.2
Value
—
PnL
-$6.2
Record
65%
13433-7163 (20596)
Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
70%
46473-19740 (66213)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$25.52
PnL
+$13.92
Record
56%
14881-11866 (26747)
Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
76%
23816-7542 (31358)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
83%
59673-11815 (71488)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $67.35
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $21.74
thesidehustle
Down — $16.98
MayorMamdani
Down — $19.42
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0