Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 54%
2 arb excluded
$298.05
-$3.7
Smart Money Signal
8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $72.31 | $112.35 | +$40.05 | 59% 14166-9784 (23950) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $56.49 | $112.35 | +$55.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 2.5¢ | $15.82 | — | -$15.82 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 34.4¢ | $73.73 | $125.33 | +$51.6 | 52% 5547-5155 (10702) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.4¢ | $43.13 | $125.33 | +$82.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.7¢ | $30.6 | — | -$30.6 | |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $7.77 | — | -$7.77 | 59% 18579-12793 (31372) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $14.8 | — | -$11.8 | 77% 41364-12330 (53694) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.86 | $7 | +$0.14 | 62% 18051-11002 (29053) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $7.4 | $15 | +$7.6 | 54% 9369-7985 (17354) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.95 | $10.31 | +$5.36 | 67% 23185-11428 (34613) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.8 | $5.05 | +$0.25 | 75% 22486-7474 (29960) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $10 | +$4.7 | 58% 15987-11596 (27583) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 69% 41473-18920 (60393) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $7.44 | $8 | +$0.56 | 61% 13569-8539 (22108) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $5 | +$2.65 | 81% 51120-11727 (62847) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 58% 14506-10295 (24801) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.24 | — | -$0.24 | 77% 23196-6978 (30174) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $3.15 | — | -$3.15 | 82% 25791-5637 (31428) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $13.22 | — | +$1.65 | 58% 6469-4604 (11073) |
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$72.31
Value
$112.35
PnL
+$40.05
Record
59%
14166-9784 (23950)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.73
Value
$125.33
PnL
+$51.6
Record
52%
5547-5155 (10702)
Both legs:
Invested
$7.77
Value
—
PnL
-$7.77
Record
59%
18579-12793 (31372)
Invested
$14.8
Value
—
PnL
-$11.8
Record
77%
41364-12330 (53694)
Invested
$6.86
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.14
Record
62%
18051-11002 (29053)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$15
PnL
+$7.6
Record
54%
9369-7985 (17354)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$5.36
Record
67%
23185-11428 (34613)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.25
Record
75%
22486-7474 (29960)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.7
Record
58%
15987-11596 (27583)
Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
69%
41473-18920 (60393)
Invested
$7.44
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.56
Record
61%
13569-8539 (22108)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.65
Record
81%
51120-11727 (62847)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
58%
14506-10295 (24801)
Invested
$0.24
Value
—
PnL
-$0.24
Record
77%
23196-6978 (30174)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
—
PnL
-$3.15
Record
82%
25791-5637 (31428)
Invested
$13.22
Value
—
PnL
+$1.65
Record
58%
6469-4604 (11073)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $7
thesidehustle
Down — $15
PBot-6
Down — $10.31
asdaefef
Down — $5.05
MayorMamdani
Down — $10
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0