Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$489.49
-$1.43
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Upavg 10.1¢ | $49.66 | $56.12 | +$6.46 | 59% 14166-9784 (23950) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.1¢ | $28.48 | — | -$28.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.7¢ | $21.18 | $56.12 | +$34.94 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $99.38 | $100.49 | +$1.11 | 52% 5547-5155 (10702) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 90¢ | $90.73 | $100.79 | +$10.06 | 56% 31413-24251 (55664) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $63.26 | $49.36 | -$13.91 | 82% 25791-5637 (31428) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.8¢ | $25.28 | — | -$25.28 | 70% 19712-8281 (27993) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $23.97 | $37 | +$13.03 | 69% 41473-18920 (60393) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $27.02 | $30.7 | +$3.68 | 64% 12116-6779 (18895) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $18.01 | $26.26 | +$8.25 | 61% 13569-8539 (22108) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $11.65 | $20.43 | +$8.78 | 56% 14781-11800 (26581) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 90.8¢ | $18.15 | $20 | +$1.85 | 77% 41364-12330 (53694) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $10.11 | $15.68 | +$5.57 | 75% 22486-7474 (29960) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 41.5¢ | $6.41 | $15.44 | +$9.03 | 59% 18579-12793 (31372) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $11.5 | — | -$11.5 | 58% 6469-4604 (11073) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $5.15 | — | -$5.15 | 54% 9369-7985 (17354) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $6.75 | $10.06 | +$3.31 | 62% 18051-11002 (29053) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.8¢ | $12.8 | — | -$12.8 | 58% 14506-10295 (24801) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.78 | $3.56 | +$1.78 | 67% 23185-11428 (34613) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $1.59 | $1.62 | +$0.03 | 93% 20154-1617 (21771) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $1.26 | $2 | +$0.74 | 75% 23276-7607 (30883) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 15316-14141 (29457) |
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$49.66
Value
$56.12
PnL
+$6.46
Record
59%
14166-9784 (23950)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.38
Value
$100.49
PnL
+$1.11
Record
52%
5547-5155 (10702)
Invested
$90.73
Value
$100.79
PnL
+$10.06
Record
56%
31413-24251 (55664)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$63.26
Value
$49.36
PnL
-$13.91
Record
82%
25791-5637 (31428)
Invested
$25.28
Value
—
PnL
-$25.28
Record
70%
19712-8281 (27993)
Invested
$23.97
Value
$37
PnL
+$13.03
Record
69%
41473-18920 (60393)
Invested
$27.02
Value
$30.7
PnL
+$3.68
Record
64%
12116-6779 (18895)
Invested
$18.01
Value
$26.26
PnL
+$8.25
Record
61%
13569-8539 (22108)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$20.43
PnL
+$8.78
Record
56%
14781-11800 (26581)
Invested
$18.15
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.85
Record
77%
41364-12330 (53694)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$15.68
PnL
+$5.57
Record
75%
22486-7474 (29960)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$15.44
PnL
+$9.03
Record
59%
18579-12793 (31372)
Invested
$11.5
Value
—
PnL
-$11.5
Record
58%
6469-4604 (11073)
Invested
$5.15
Value
—
PnL
-$5.15
Record
54%
9369-7985 (17354)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$10.06
PnL
+$3.31
Record
62%
18051-11002 (29053)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$12.8
Value
—
PnL
-$12.8
Record
58%
14506-10295 (24801)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$3.56
PnL
+$1.78
Record
67%
23185-11428 (34613)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$0.03
Record
93%
20154-1617 (21771)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1.26
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.74
Record
75%
23276-7607 (30883)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
15316-14141 (29457)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $100.49
uninformedfloww
Down — $100.79
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $49.36
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $37
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $30.7
asidjasiodja
Down — $26.26
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $20.43
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $20