Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$385.81
-$69.78
Smart Money Signal
7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.8¢ | $64.16 | — | -$64.16 | 52% 5547-5155 (10702) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $71.11 | $71.83 | +$0.72 | 93% 20154-1617 (21771) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $40.66 | $44.31 | +$3.65 | 58% 15987-11596 (27583) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 11.3¢ | $11.05 | — | -$11.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.8¢ | $29.61 | $44.31 | +$14.7 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98¢ | $109.76 | $112 | +$2.24 | 70% 19712-8281 (27993) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 41.5¢ | $34.37 | $69.45 | +$35.08 | 59% 14166-9784 (23950) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $31.95 | — | -$31.95 | 59% 18579-12793 (31372) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $43.2 | $38.43 | -$0.63 | 77% 41364-12330 (53694) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $15.43 | $15 | -$0.43 | 54% 9369-7985 (17354) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.5¢ | $5.19 | — | -$5.19 | 61% 13569-8539 (22108) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $16.79 | $19.3 | +$2.51 | 62% 38229-23726 (61955) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $11.56 | — | -$11.56 | 58% 6469-4604 (11073) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 30.3¢ | $4.7 | $15.49 | +$10.79 | 56% 14781-11800 (26581) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 75% 22486-7474 (29960) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $1.85 | — | -$1.85 | 62% 18051-11002 (29053) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $1.65 | — | -$1.65 | 52% 15316-14141 (29457) |
Invested
$64.16
Value
—
PnL
-$64.16
Record
52%
5547-5155 (10702)
Invested
$71.11
Value
$71.83
PnL
+$0.72
Record
93%
20154-1617 (21771)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$40.66
Value
$44.31
PnL
+$3.65
Record
58%
15987-11596 (27583)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.76
Value
$112
PnL
+$2.24
Record
70%
19712-8281 (27993)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$34.37
Value
$69.45
PnL
+$35.08
Record
59%
14166-9784 (23950)
Invested
$31.95
Value
—
PnL
-$31.95
Record
59%
18579-12793 (31372)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$38.43
PnL
-$0.63
Record
77%
41364-12330 (53694)
Invested
$15.43
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
9369-7985 (17354)
Invested
$5.19
Value
—
PnL
-$5.19
Record
61%
13569-8539 (22108)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$16.79
Value
$19.3
PnL
+$2.51
Record
62%
38229-23726 (61955)
Invested
$11.56
Value
—
PnL
-$11.56
Record
58%
6469-4604 (11073)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$15.49
PnL
+$10.79
Record
56%
14781-11800 (26581)
Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
75%
22486-7474 (29960)
Invested
$1.85
Value
—
PnL
-$1.85
Record
62%
18051-11002 (29053)
Invested
$1.65
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
52%
15316-14141 (29457)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $71.83
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $112
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $69.45
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $38.43
thesidehustle
Down — $15
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $19.3