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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 62%

Total Value

$183.58

Combined PnL

-$11.55

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$183.58

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$31.63

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares318

Combined PnL-$43.18

Up — 47%Down — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$77.31	$81	+$3.69	59% 14166-9784 (23950)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$38.66	$56.99	+$18.33	69% 41473-18920 (60393)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 84¢	$21	$25	+$4	83% 44804-8899 (53703)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 68.3¢	$10.65	$15.59	+$4.94	56% 14781-11800 (26581)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.6¢	$2.86	—	-$2.86	77% 23196-6978 (30174)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 25.3¢	$25.52	—	-$25.52	52% 5547-5155 (10702)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 40.5¢	$4.59	—	-$4.59	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$3.33	—	-$3.33	64% 12116-6779 (18895)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 95¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	61% 13569-8539 (22108)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 6.4¢	$2.86	—	-$2.86	58% 15987-11596 (27583)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 12.2¢	$3.47	—	-$3.47	56% 31413-24251 (55664)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$0.4	—	-$0.4	82% 25791-5637 (31428)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$0.15	—	-$0.15	53% 11852-10386 (22238)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	52% 15316-14141 (29457)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 96¢	$13.44	—	+$0.42	58% 6469-4604 (11073)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$77.31

Value

$81

PnL

+$3.69

Record

59%

14166-9784 (23950)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$38.66

Value

$56.99

PnL

+$18.33

Record

69%

41473-18920 (60393)

Invested

$21

Value

$25

PnL

+$4

Record

83%

44804-8899 (53703)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$4.94

Record

56%

14781-11800 (26581)

Invested

$2.86

Value

—

PnL

-$2.86

Record

77%

23196-6978 (30174)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$25.52

Value

—

PnL

-$25.52

Record

52%

5547-5155 (10702)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

—

PnL

-$4.59

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.33

Value

—

PnL

-$3.33

Record

64%

12116-6779 (18895)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

61%

13569-8539 (22108)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

—

PnL

-$2.86

Record

58%

15987-11596 (27583)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

—

PnL

-$3.47

Record

56%

31413-24251 (55664)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

—

PnL

-$0.4

Record

82%

25791-5637 (31428)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

—

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

11852-10386 (22238)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

15316-14141 (29457)

Invested

$13.44

Value

—

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

6469-4604 (11073)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6e6fe30f...da2e58

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1792914000

Traders in this Market

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $81

Bonereaper

Up — $56.99

BoneOhio

Up — $25

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $15.59

0x50f7

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

thesidehustle

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $5

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

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