Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 50%
2 arb excluded
$486.31
-$73.73
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $254.38 | $232.89 | -$21.5 | 52% 5547-5155 (10702) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 83.9¢ | $195.41 | $232.89 | +$37.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.6¢ | $58.97 | — | -$58.97 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $79.2 | $80 | +$0.8 | 93% 20154-1617 (21771) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 81.4¢ | $55.36 | $60 | +$9.54 | 58% 6469-4604 (11073) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 68.8¢ | $28.49 | $32 | +$3.51 | 58% 15987-11596 (27583) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 9.1¢ | $6.49 | — | -$6.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.8¢ | $22 | $32 | +$10 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.6¢ | $24.58 | — | -$24.58 | 59% 14166-9784 (23950) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 24.1¢ | $20.65 | — | -$20.65 | 56% 14781-11800 (26581) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.9¢ | $13.35 | — | -$13.35 | 59% 18579-12793 (31372) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $18.7 | $20 | +$1.3 | 77% 41364-12330 (53694) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $26.45 | $23.85 | -$2.6 | 54% 9369-7985 (17354) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $21.65 | $15 | -$6.65 | 61% 13569-8539 (22108) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 87.4¢ | $17.5 | $13.23 | -$4.27 | 75% 22486-7474 (29960) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 44.3¢ | $9.31 | — | -$9.31 | 69% 41473-18920 (60393) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $6.91 | $9.35 | +$2.44 | 62% 38229-23726 (61955) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 58% 14506-10295 (24801) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 25¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 62% 18051-11002 (29053) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 56% 31413-24251 (55664) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 15316-14141 (29457) |
Invested
$254.38
Value
$232.89
PnL
-$21.5
Record
52%
5547-5155 (10702)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.2
Value
$80
PnL
+$0.8
Record
93%
20154-1617 (21771)
Invested
$55.36
Value
$60
PnL
+$9.54
Record
58%
6469-4604 (11073)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$28.49
Value
$32
PnL
+$3.51
Record
58%
15987-11596 (27583)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$24.58
Value
—
PnL
-$24.58
Record
59%
14166-9784 (23950)
Invested
$20.65
Value
—
PnL
-$20.65
Record
56%
14781-11800 (26581)
Invested
$13.35
Value
—
PnL
-$13.35
Record
59%
18579-12793 (31372)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.3
Record
77%
41364-12330 (53694)
Invested
$26.45
Value
$23.85
PnL
-$2.6
Record
54%
9369-7985 (17354)
Invested
$21.65
Value
$15
PnL
-$6.65
Record
61%
13569-8539 (22108)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$13.23
PnL
-$4.27
Record
75%
22486-7474 (29960)
Invested
$9.31
Value
—
PnL
-$9.31
Record
69%
41473-18920 (60393)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$6.91
Value
$9.35
PnL
+$2.44
Record
62%
38229-23726 (61955)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
58%
14506-10295 (24801)
Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
62%
18051-11002 (29053)
Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
56%
31413-24251 (55664)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
15316-14141 (29457)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $80
aaa221
Up — $60
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $20
thesidehustle
Up — $23.85
asidjasiodja
Up — $15