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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 83%

Total Value

$53.5

Combined PnL

-$388.44

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares675

Combined PnL-$451.79

Up6 traders

Total Value$53.5

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$63.35

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$56.05	—	-$56.05	51% 6233-5908 (12141)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Downavg 48.6¢	$160.97	—	-$160.97	54% 14272-12057 (26329)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Downavg 77.3¢	$117.63	—	-$117.63	54% 15047-12962 (28009)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$14.86	$53.5	+$38.64	65% 20299-11074 (31373)
HO hoodquantCTR	Downavg 98¢	$102.41	—	-$102.41	93% 21990-1701 (23691)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 96¢	$14.73	—	-$14.73	63% 50480-29824 (80304)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	—	—	+$0	66% 110995-57210 (168205)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 34¢	—	—	+$0	64% 39486-22518 (62004)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 33¢	—	—	+$0	58% 59847-43689 (103536)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 15¢	—	—	+$0	52% 88635-83063 (171698)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19496-18692 (38188)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 34.6¢	$13.1	—	+$24.71	56% 16881-13534 (30415)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$56.05

Value

—

PnL

-$56.05

Record

51%

6233-5908 (12141)

Invested

$160.97

Value

—

PnL

-$160.97

Record

54%

14272-12057 (26329)

Invested

$117.63

Value

—

PnL

-$117.63

Record

54%

15047-12962 (28009)

Invested

$14.86

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$38.64

Record

65%

20299-11074 (31373)

Invested

$102.41

Value

—

PnL

-$102.41

Record

93%

21990-1701 (23691)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.73

Value

—

PnL

-$14.73

Record

63%

50480-29824 (80304)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

110995-57210 (168205)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

39486-22518 (62004)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

59847-43689 (103536)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

88635-83063 (171698)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19496-18692 (38188)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

—

PnL

+$24.71

Record

56%

16881-13534 (30415)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x39e70bbb...bb7233

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793066400

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $0

tmsd-test

Down — $0

aswfadq1555

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $53.5

hoodquant

Down — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

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