Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$420.88
$125.21
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 46¢ | $76.28 | $124.35 | +$48.07 | 54% 15011-12907 (27918) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 48.7¢ | $59.96 | $123 | +$63.04 | 54% 14258-12036 (26294) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $80.47 | $77.49 | -$2.98 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.5¢ | $42.27 | $77.49 | +$35.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.5¢ | $38.21 | — | -$38.21 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $47.15 | $59.99 | +$12.84 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $22.01 | $26.52 | +$4.51 | 63% 49651-29409 (79060) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $6.1 | $9.53 | +$3.43 | 55% 48631-39531 (88162) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.4¢ | $6.68 | — | -$6.68 | 78% 88093-25070 (113163) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19388-18619 (38007) |
Invested
$76.28
Value
$124.35
PnL
+$48.07
Record
54%
15011-12907 (27918)
Invested
$59.96
Value
$123
PnL
+$63.04
Record
54%
14258-12036 (26294)
Invested
$80.47
Value
$77.49
PnL
-$2.98
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.15
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$12.84
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$22.01
Value
$26.52
PnL
+$4.51
Record
63%
49651-29409 (79060)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$9.53
PnL
+$3.43
Record
55%
48631-39531 (88162)
Invested
$6.68
Value
—
PnL
-$6.68
Record
78%
88093-25070 (113163)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19388-18619 (38007)
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