Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 57%
$104.14
-$108.81
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 53.8¢ | $119.26 | — | -$119.26 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 36.4¢ | $43 | $91.14 | +$48.13 | 57% 66959-50799 (117758) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $53 | — | -$53 | 54% 15011-12907 (27918) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $19.6 | — | -$19.6 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $4.44 | $8 | +$3.56 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $16.4 | — | +$25.2 | 51% 19388-18619 (38007) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $5 | +$1.85 | 64% 39294-22405 (61699) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $18.74 | — | +$4.3 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
Invested
$119.26
Value
—
PnL
-$119.26
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Invested
$43
Value
$91.14
PnL
+$48.13
Record
57%
66959-50799 (117758)
Invested
$53
Value
—
PnL
-$53
Record
54%
15011-12907 (27918)
Invested
$19.6
Value
—
PnL
-$19.6
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$4.44
Value
$8
PnL
+$3.56
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
Invested
$16.4
Value
—
PnL
+$25.2
Record
51%
19388-18619 (38007)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.85
Record
64%
39294-22405 (61699)
Invested
$18.74
Value
—
PnL
+$4.3
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
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