Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Up 67%
3 arb excluded
$768.96
-$37.73
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 26.2¢ | $240.13 | $417.07 | +$176.94 | 54% 15011-12907 (27918) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.1¢ | $83.94 | $417.07 | +$333.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.2¢ | $156.19 | — | -$156.19 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $93.27 | $103.7 | +$10.43 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.1¢ | $26.04 | $103.7 | +$77.66 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65¢ | $67.22 | — | -$67.22 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $90.89 | $77.65 | -$13.24 | 54% 14258-12036 (26294) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58¢ | $45.07 | $77.65 | +$32.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.2¢ | $45.82 | — | -$45.82 | |
HO hoodquantCTR | Downavg 98.9¢ | $111.18 | — | -$111.18 | 93% 21764-1691 (23455) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 40.4¢ | $37 | $55.5 | +$18.5 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $14.67 | $28.06 | +$13.39 | 66% 109300-55693 (164993) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.4¢ | $8.46 | — | -$8.46 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 38.2¢ | $15.21 | $37.96 | +$22.75 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $10.97 | $21.51 | +$10.54 | 58% 59354-43324 (102678) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 41.3¢ | $8.4 | $20.36 | +$11.96 | 51% 19388-18619 (38007) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.64 | $7.15 | +$5.51 | 64% 39294-22405 (61699) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $0.74 | — | -$0.74 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
Invested
$240.13
Value
$417.07
PnL
+$176.94
Record
54%
15011-12907 (27918)
Both legs:
Invested
$93.27
Value
$103.7
PnL
+$10.43
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.89
Value
$77.65
PnL
-$13.24
Record
54%
14258-12036 (26294)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.18
Value
—
PnL
-$111.18
Record
93%
21764-1691 (23455)
Invested
$37
Value
$55.5
PnL
+$18.5
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$14.67
Value
$28.06
PnL
+$13.39
Record
66%
109300-55693 (164993)
Invested
$8.46
Value
—
PnL
-$8.46
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$37.96
PnL
+$22.75
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$21.51
PnL
+$10.54
Record
58%
59354-43324 (102678)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$20.36
PnL
+$11.96
Record
51%
19388-18619 (38007)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$5.51
Record
64%
39294-22405 (61699)
Invested
$0.74
Value
—
PnL
-$0.74
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $55.5
antsaslyku
Up — $28.06
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $37.96
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $21.51
devonpoll
Up — $20.36