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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 54%

Total Value

$403.09

Combined PnL

-$54.99

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$403.09

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$84.48

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$139.47

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 43.9¢	$117.58	$164.5	+$46.92	54% 14996-12890 (27886)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 57.5¢	$128.71	$118.3	-$10.41	51% 6112-5777 (11889)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 22.8¢	$63.8	—	-$63.8	54% 14257-12035 (26292)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 64¢	$32.05	$50.08	+$18.03	58% 58725-42827 (101552)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 57¢	$41.75	$38.21	+$13.22	65% 19990-10879 (30869)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$18.9	—	-$18.9	56% 47445-37975 (85420)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$18.9	—	-$18.9	55% 48280-39244 (87524)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$18.9	—	-$18.9	55% 46459-38166 (84625)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 53¢	$10.6	$20	+$9.4	67% 22364-11183 (33547)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$8.82	—	-$8.82	59% 36785-26074 (62859)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 39¢	$4.68	$12	+$7.32	58% 11877-8681 (20558)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$6.6	—	-$6.6	63% 47924-28546 (76470)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$3.55	—	-$3.55	52% 87251-81446 (168697)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19245-18476 (37721)

Invested

$117.58

Value

$164.5

PnL

+$46.92

Record

54%

14996-12890 (27886)

Invested

$128.71

Value

$118.3

PnL

-$10.41

Record

51%

6112-5777 (11889)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$63.8

Value

—

PnL

-$63.8

Record

54%

14257-12035 (26292)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$32.05

Value

$50.08

PnL

+$18.03

Record

58%

58725-42827 (101552)

Invested

$41.75

Value

$38.21

PnL

+$13.22

Record

65%

19990-10879 (30869)

Invested

$18.9

Value

—

PnL

-$18.9

Record

56%

47445-37975 (85420)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

—

PnL

-$18.9

Record

55%

48280-39244 (87524)

Invested

$18.9

Value

—

PnL

-$18.9

Record

55%

46459-38166 (84625)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.4

Record

67%

22364-11183 (33547)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$8.82

Value

—

PnL

-$8.82

Record

59%

36785-26074 (62859)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$12

PnL

+$7.32

Record

58%

11877-8681 (20558)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

—

PnL

-$6.6

Record

63%

47924-28546 (76470)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

—

PnL

-$3.55

Record

52%

87251-81446 (168697)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19245-18476 (37721)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa6971e13...3d848d

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793041200

Traders in this Market

aswfadq1555

Up — $164.5

ply-pm2

Up — $118.3

tmsd-test

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $50.08

aaa221

Up — $38.21

bosona

Down — $0

mo-money

Down — $0

almach

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $20

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

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