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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$171.6

Combined PnL

-$567.58

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares947
Combined PnL-$574.09
Down4 traders
Total Value$50.99
Total Shares51
Combined PnL+$6.51
Up — 56%Down — 44%
AS
aswfadq1555CTR
Up

Invested

$212.46

Value

—

PnL

-$212.46

Record

54%

14996-12890 (27886)

PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$115.6

Value

$120.61

PnL

+$5.02

Record

51%

6112-5777 (11889)

Both legs:

Up$52.4649.9¢-$52.46
Down$63.1452.4¢+$57.47
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$58.86

Value

—

PnL

-$58.86

Record

58%

11877-8681 (20558)

TM
tmsd-testCTR
Up

Invested

$276.78

Value

—

PnL

-$252.39

Record

54%

14257-12035 (26292)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$26.37

Value

—

PnL

-$26.37

Record

65%

19990-10879 (30869)

PB
PBot-6CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

58%

49367-35500 (84867)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$18.97

Value

$19.16

PnL

+$0.19

Record

93%

21707-1689 (23396)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100
Down

Invested

$13.96

Value

$16.62

PnL

+$2.66

Record

63%

47924-28546 (76470)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100
Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$3.45

Record

55%

16513-13257 (29770)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

58725-42827 (101552)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x76afaeaa...bd84e4
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1793037600

Traders in this Market

AS

aswfadq1555

CTR

Up — $0

-$212.46
PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.02
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Up — $0

-$58.86
TM

tmsd-test

CTR

Up — $0

-$252.39
AA

aaa221

CTR

Up — $0

-$26.37
PB

PBot-6

CTR

Up — $0

-$24
HO

hoodquant

Down — $19.16

+$0.19

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $16.62

+$2.66
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $10.2

+$3.45
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $5

+$0.2
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