Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$544.79
-$13.37
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $382.94 | $388.07 | +$5.13 | 93% 21625-1687 (23312) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.8¢ | $66.08 | — | -$66.08 | 54% 14983-12881 (27864) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $62.12 | $61.13 | -$0.99 | 51% 6071-5737 (11808) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.6¢ | $41.94 | $61.13 | +$19.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.8¢ | $20.18 | — | -$20.18 | |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $24.07 | $83 | +$58.93 | 54% 14256-12030 (26286) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $12.09 | $12.59 | +$0.5 | 63% 47883-28520 (76403) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 58% 58683-42785 (101468) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.65 | — | -$1.65 | 65% 19899-10832 (30731) |
Invested
$382.94
Value
$388.07
PnL
+$5.13
Record
93%
21625-1687 (23312)
Invested
$66.08
Value
—
PnL
-$66.08
Record
54%
14983-12881 (27864)
Invested
$62.12
Value
$61.13
PnL
-$0.99
Record
51%
6071-5737 (11808)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.07
Value
$83
PnL
+$58.93
Record
54%
14256-12030 (26286)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.59
PnL
+$0.5
Record
63%
47883-28520 (76403)
Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.2
Record
58%
58683-42785 (101468)
Invested
$1.65
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
65%
19899-10832 (30731)
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