Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 88%
2 arb excluded
$991.68
$48.29
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $97.2 | $360 | +$46.9 | 52% 17116-15936 (33052) |
| └ Up leg | Up | — | — | -$215.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27¢ | $97.2 | $360 | +$262.8 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $283.28 | $287 | +$3.72 | 93% 21534-1676 (23210) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $71.94 | $104.5 | +$32.56 | 54% 14249-12028 (26277) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.1¢ | $44.04 | $104.5 | +$60.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18¢ | $27.9 | — | -$27.9 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 48.1¢ | $66.84 | $103.23 | +$36.39 | 57% 64862-49061 (113923) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $50.1 | $82.75 | +$32.64 | 54% 7333-6142 (13475) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $35.14 | — | -$35.14 | 51% 6022-5698 (11720) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $24.28 | $19.22 | +$1.54 | 65% 19783-10760 (30543) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $12.7 | $10 | -$2.7 | 56% 16419-13148 (29567) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $9.56 | $19.5 | +$9.95 | 58% 11674-8538 (20212) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $3.6 | $5.49 | +$1.89 | 52% 86873-81238 (168111) |
Invested
$97.2
Value
$360
PnL
+$46.9
Record
52%
17116-15936 (33052)
Both legs:
Invested
$283.28
Value
$287
PnL
+$3.72
Record
93%
21534-1676 (23210)
Invested
$71.94
Value
$104.5
PnL
+$32.56
Record
54%
14249-12028 (26277)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.84
Value
$103.23
PnL
+$36.39
Record
57%
64862-49061 (113923)
Invested
$50.1
Value
$82.75
PnL
+$32.64
Record
54%
7333-6142 (13475)
Invested
$35.14
Value
—
PnL
-$35.14
Record
51%
6022-5698 (11720)
Invested
$24.28
Value
$19.22
PnL
+$1.54
Record
65%
19783-10760 (30543)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$10
PnL
-$2.7
Record
56%
16419-13148 (29567)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$9.95
Record
58%
11674-8538 (20212)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$5.49
PnL
+$1.89
Record
52%
86873-81238 (168111)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $287
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $103.23
aswfadq1555
Down — $82.75
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $19.22
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $10
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $19.5
dvasdkasodk
Down — $5.49