Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$806.34
$58.3
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $357.33 | $337.9 | -$19.43 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.1¢ | $132.57 | — | -$132.57 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.5¢ | $224.77 | $337.9 | +$113.14 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $162.47 | $164.11 | +$1.64 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 60.7¢ | $65.27 | $95.11 | +$29.83 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $41.15 | $88 | +$46.85 | 54% 14241-12016 (26257) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $43.51 | $50.08 | +$6.57 | 64% 37926-21432 (59358) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $38.22 | $42.63 | +$4.41 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $25.37 | $28.52 | +$3.15 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $67.64 | — | -$32.9 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $3.54 | — | -$3.54 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.6¢ | $8.11 | — | +$3.49 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$357.33
Value
$337.9
PnL
-$19.43
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.47
Value
$164.11
PnL
+$1.64
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
Invested
$65.27
Value
$95.11
PnL
+$29.83
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$41.15
Value
$88
PnL
+$46.85
Record
54%
14241-12016 (26257)
ohioism<$100Invested
$43.51
Value
$50.08
PnL
+$6.57
Record
64%
37926-21432 (59358)
Invested
$38.22
Value
$42.63
PnL
+$4.41
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$25.37
Value
$28.52
PnL
+$3.15
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$67.64
Value
—
PnL
-$32.9
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$3.54
Value
—
PnL
-$3.54
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$8.11
Value
—
PnL
+$3.49
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $164.11
aswfadq1555
Down — $95.11
tmsd-test
Down — $88
ohioism
Down — $50.08
ply-pm2
Down — $42.63
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $28.52
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0