Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 86%
1 arb excluded
$991.57
$164.54
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $555.24 | $631.7 | +$76.46 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $85.6 | $158.44 | +$72.84 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $80.6 | $81.33 | +$0.73 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.9¢ | $27.55 | $81.33 | +$53.78 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.7¢ | $53.04 | — | -$53.04 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $58.8 | $60 | +$1.2 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 28.5¢ | $16.51 | $40 | +$23.49 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $13.66 | $15.1 | +$1.44 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $9.54 | — | -$9.54 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $6.35 | $5 | -$1.35 | 56% 15511-12385 (27896) |
Invested
$555.24
Value
$631.7
PnL
+$76.46
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Invested
$85.6
Value
$158.44
PnL
+$72.84
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$80.6
Value
$81.33
PnL
+$0.73
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$1.2
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
Invested
$16.51
Value
$40
PnL
+$23.49
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$13.66
Value
$15.1
PnL
+$1.44
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$9.54
Value
—
PnL
-$9.54
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.35
Record
56%
15511-12385 (27896)
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