Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (86%) · Up at 100¢ · $707 held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

Total Value

$707.13

Combined PnL

$74.07

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$700.43

Total Shares740

Combined PnL+$71.97

Down1 trader

Total Value$6.7

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$2.1

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 83.8¢	$407.27	$460.58	+$53.31	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Upavg 87¢	$81.78	$82.44	+$0.66	54% 14241-12016 (26257)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 82.4¢	$70.87	$70.1	-$0.78	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$45.76	$63.68	+$17.92	54% 7032-5938 (12970)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 51¢	$15.32	$15.17	-$0.15	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 82.9¢	$7.46	$8.47	+$1.01	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$4.6	$6.7	+$2.1	56% 34391-26783 (61174)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$407.27

Value

$460.58

PnL

+$53.31

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

tmsd-test<$100

Invested

$81.78

Value

$82.44

PnL

+$0.66

Record

54%

14241-12016 (26257)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$70.87

Value

$70.1

PnL

-$0.78

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

aswfadq1555<$100

Invested

$45.76

Value

$63.68

PnL

+$17.92

Record

54%

7032-5938 (12970)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$15.32

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$7.46

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$1.01

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$2.1

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.