Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$329.21
$4.47
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $198 | $200 | +$2 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $73.61 | $69 | -$4.61 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.1¢ | $27.41 | — | -$27.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $46.2 | $69 | +$22.8 | |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $23.09 | $29.86 | +$6.77 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.2¢ | $7.95 | — | -$7.95 | 54% 14241-12016 (26257) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $17.45 | $20.41 | +$2.96 | 56% 15511-12385 (27896) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $9.25 | $9.94 | +$0.7 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$198
Value
$200
PnL
+$2
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
Invested
$73.61
Value
$69
PnL
-$4.61
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.09
Value
$29.86
PnL
+$6.77
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$7.95
Value
—
PnL
-$7.95
Record
54%
14241-12016 (26257)
Invested
$17.45
Value
$20.41
PnL
+$2.96
Record
56%
15511-12385 (27896)
Invested
$9.25
Value
$9.94
PnL
+$0.7
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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