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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 57%

Total Value

$27.78

Combined PnL

-$95.03

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares151

Combined PnL-$105.74

Up4 traders

Total Value$27.78

Total Shares28

Combined PnL+$10.71

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$45.62	—	-$45.62	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$39.08	—	-$39.08	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$19.14	—	-$19.14	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 39¢	$6.4	$10	+$3.6	84% 31418-5931 (37349)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 60¢	$10.67	$12.78	+$5.56	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 12.7¢	$1.9	—	-$1.9	54% 7032-5938 (12970)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 69¢	$3.45	$5	+$1.55	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	52% 16869-15701 (32570)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$45.62

Value

—

PnL

-$45.62

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$39.08

Value

—

PnL

-$39.08

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$19.14

Value

—

PnL

-$19.14

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.6

Record

84%

31418-5931 (37349)

Invested

$10.67

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$5.56

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

—

PnL

-$1.9

Record

54%

7032-5938 (12970)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.55

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2503ef29...4f705f

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1792997100

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $10

aaa221

Up — $12.78

aswfadq1555

Down — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $5

devonpoll

Up — $0

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