Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$26.95

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$144.01

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$16.45

Down3 traders

Total Value$49.53

Total Shares73

Combined PnL-$10.51

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$874.85	$726.47	-$148.38	89% 55267-6960 (62227)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$410.64	$382.88	-$27.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$464.21	$343.59	-$120.62
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$348.02	$296.45	-$51.56	72% 50289-19256 (69545)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$165.66	$166.07	+$0.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$182.35	$130.38	-$51.97
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 25.4¢	$70.96	$134.48	+$63.52	57% 33230-25572 (58802)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.4¢	$46.68	$81.65	+$34.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.5¢	$24.28	$52.83	+$28.55
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 70¢	$132.67	$104.79	-$27.88	54% 6554-5505 (12059)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$92.4	$88.3	-$4.1	52% 5900-5523 (11423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$48.96	$48.38	-$0.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$43.44	$39.92	-$3.52
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$40.78	$27.17	+$2.09	67% 14122-6957 (21079)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$11.79	$26.51	+$14.72	54% 14237-12012 (26249)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$29.7	$13.35	-$16.35	93% 20638-1667 (22305)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$1.12	$10.36	+$9.24	64% 20413-11416 (31829)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$18.55	$9.67	-$8.88	56% 15211-12117 (27328)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 79¢	$1.58	$1.69	+$0.11	52% 16527-15335 (31862)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$874.85

Value

$726.47

PnL

-$148.38

Record

89%

55267-6960 (62227)

Both legs:

Up$410.6459.5¢-$27.76

Down$464.2160.1¢-$120.62

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$348.02

Value

$296.45

PnL

-$51.56

Record

72%

50289-19256 (69545)

Both legs:

Up$165.6655.4¢+$0.41

Down$182.3562.2¢-$51.97

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.96

Value

$134.48

PnL

+$63.52

Record

57%

33230-25572 (58802)

Both legs:

Down$46.6825.4¢+$34.97

Up$24.2825.5¢+$28.55

aswfadq1555CTR

Invested

$132.67

Value

$104.79

PnL

-$27.88

Record

54%

6554-5505 (12059)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$92.4

Value

$88.3

PnL

-$4.1

Record

52%

5900-5523 (11423)

Both legs:

Up$48.9656.2¢-$0.58

Down$43.4448.4¢-$3.52

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$40.78

Value

$27.17

PnL

+$2.09

Record

67%

14122-6957 (21079)

tmsd-test<$100

Down

Invested

$11.79

Value

$26.51

PnL

+$14.72

Record

54%

14237-12012 (26249)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$29.7

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$16.35

Record

93%

20638-1667 (22305)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$9.24

Record

64%

20413-11416 (31829)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$18.55

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$8.88

Record

56%

15211-12117 (27328)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

16527-15335 (31862)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.