Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Down 63%
7 arb excluded
$4.4K
-$80.38
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $2.9K | $2.5K | -$467.62 | 88% 52847-6938 (59785) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.8¢ | $1.6K | $2.5K | +$898.43 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.4¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $616.13 | $547.88 | -$68.26 | 72% 48453-19245 (67698) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.9¢ | $349.89 | $547.88 | +$197.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.7¢ | $266.25 | — | -$266.25 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 30.8¢ | $271.01 | $336.28 | +$65.27 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.8¢ | $175.95 | — | -$175.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.3¢ | $95.06 | $336.28 | +$241.22 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.9¢ | $375.44 | $552.53 | +$177.09 | 54% 6366-5369 (11735) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.9¢ | $253.57 | $552.53 | +$298.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.8¢ | $121.88 | — | -$121.88 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $206.91 | $222.95 | +$16.04 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.6¢ | $101.6 | $222.95 | +$121.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $105.32 | — | -$105.32 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $139.75 | $117.53 | -$22.22 | 54% 14236-12011 (26247) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.1¢ | $56.26 | — | -$56.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71¢ | $83.49 | $117.53 | +$34.04 | |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.2¢ | $64.24 | — | -$64.24 | 62% 1716-1030 (2746) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $70.06 | $70.84 | +$0.77 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.1¢ | $26.96 | $70.84 | +$43.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.6¢ | $43.1 | — | -$43.1 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.2¢ | $19.97 | — | -$19.97 | 60% 16070-10630 (26700) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $35.05 | $50.39 | +$15.34 | 67% 14977-7366 (22343) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $16.87 | — | -$16.87 | 58% 11317-8292 (19609) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $20 | +$10.6 | 77% 28993-8555 (37548) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $17.16 | $17.33 | +$0.17 | 93% 20604-1665 (22269) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $7.24 | — | -$7.24 | 64% 20058-11389 (31447) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | — | -$4.7 | 71% 21334-8554 (29888) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.3¢ | $46.71 | — | +$6.52 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 79.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16519-15327 (31846) |
Invested
$2,947.83
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$467.62
Record
88%
52847-6938 (59785)
Both legs:
Invested
$616.13
Value
$547.88
PnL
-$68.26
Record
72%
48453-19245 (67698)
Both legs:
Invested
$271.01
Value
$336.28
PnL
+$65.27
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
Both legs:
Invested
$375.44
Value
$552.53
PnL
+$177.09
Record
54%
6366-5369 (11735)
Both legs:
Invested
$206.91
Value
$222.95
PnL
+$16.04
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Both legs:
Invested
$139.75
Value
$117.53
PnL
-$22.22
Record
54%
14236-12011 (26247)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.24
Value
—
PnL
-$64.24
Record
62%
1716-1030 (2746)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$70.06
Value
$70.84
PnL
+$0.77
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$19.97
Value
—
PnL
-$19.97
Record
60%
16070-10630 (26700)
Invested
$35.05
Value
$50.39
PnL
+$15.34
Record
67%
14977-7366 (22343)
Invested
$16.87
Value
—
PnL
-$16.87
Record
58%
11317-8292 (19609)
ohioism<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.6
Record
77%
28993-8555 (37548)
Invested
$17.16
Value
$17.33
PnL
+$0.17
Record
93%
20604-1665 (22269)
Invested
$7.24
Value
—
PnL
-$7.24
Record
64%
20058-11389 (31447)
Invested
$4.7
Value
—
PnL
-$4.7
Record
71%
21334-8554 (29888)
Invested
$46.71
Value
—
PnL
+$6.52
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16519-15327 (31846)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
YouSayUpISayDown
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $50.39