Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 70%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$304.26
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $2.1K | $1.8K | -$357.82 | 88% 52847-6938 (59785) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $335.73 | $339.42 | +$3.69 | 93% 20604-1665 (22269) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 53.9¢ | $191.15 | $197.4 | +$6.25 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.5¢ | $85.78 | $197.4 | +$111.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.9¢ | $105.37 | — | -$105.37 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 41.7¢ | $48.38 | $68.12 | +$19.74 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.7¢ | $27.97 | — | -$27.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30¢ | $20.41 | $68.12 | +$47.71 | |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.8¢ | $72.62 | — | -$72.62 | 54% 6366-5369 (11735) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $58.6 | $77.31 | +$18.71 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $37.35 | $83 | +$45.65 | 54% 14236-12011 (26247) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 23.8¢ | $20.4 | $85.67 | +$65.27 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.7¢ | $76.9 | — | -$5.38 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 31.5¢ | $5.55 | — | -$5.55 | 64% 20058-11389 (31447) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $9.18 | $10.2 | +$1.02 | 77% 28993-8555 (37548) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $2.74 | $5.52 | +$2.78 | 71% 21334-8554 (29888) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 82.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16519-15327 (31846) |
Invested
$2,133
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$357.82
Record
88%
52847-6938 (59785)
Invested
$335.73
Value
$339.42
PnL
+$3.69
Record
93%
20604-1665 (22269)
Invested
$191.15
Value
$197.4
PnL
+$6.25
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$48.38
Value
$68.12
PnL
+$19.74
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.62
Value
—
PnL
-$72.62
Record
54%
6366-5369 (11735)
Invested
$58.6
Value
$77.31
PnL
+$18.71
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
Invested
$37.35
Value
$83
PnL
+$45.65
Record
54%
14236-12011 (26247)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$85.67
PnL
+$65.27
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
Invested
$76.9
Value
—
PnL
-$5.38
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
Invested
$5.55
Value
—
PnL
-$5.55
Record
64%
20058-11389 (31447)
ohioism<$100Invested
$9.18
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$1.02
Record
77%
28993-8555 (37548)
Invested
$2.74
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$2.78
Record
71%
21334-8554 (29888)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16519-15327 (31846)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.8K
hoodquant
Down — $339.42
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $77.31
tmsd-test
Down — $83
uninformedfloww
Down — $85.67
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0