Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Up 56%
4 arb excluded
$762.75
-$13.74
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $465.64 | $258.98 | -$206.66 | 88% 48649-6911 (55560) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $259.46 | — | -$259.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.6¢ | $206.18 | $258.98 | +$52.8 | |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $195.76 | $166.02 | -$29.74 | 70% 44729-19033 (63762) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.7¢ | $95.89 | — | -$95.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.2¢ | $99.87 | $166.02 | +$66.15 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 58.4¢ | $67.34 | $70.39 | +$3.05 | 66% 14228-7218 (21446) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $26.2 | — | -$26.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.4¢ | $41.13 | $70.39 | +$29.26 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 43.7¢ | $63.18 | $83.35 | +$20.17 | 54% 5994-5097 (11091) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.7¢ | $36.41 | $83.35 | +$46.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.8¢ | $26.77 | — | -$26.77 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $34.35 | — | -$34.35 | 52% 5827-5465 (11292) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $29.25 | $32.53 | +$3.28 | 83% 28668-5871 (34539) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 63.1¢ | $43.25 | $56.85 | +$13.6 | 56% 15141-12065 (27206) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.2¢ | $6.45 | — | -$6.45 | 54% 14230-12008 (26238) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 66.6¢ | $56.44 | $57.49 | +$16.28 | 67% 13816-6882 (20698) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $7.04 | — | -$7.04 | 57% 33114-25464 (58578) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $30.47 | $30.78 | +$0.31 | 93% 20539-1653 (22192) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.1¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 63% 19526-11360 (30886) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $4.58 | $6.36 | +$1.78 | 58% 11123-8150 (19273) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16382-15161 (31543) |
Invested
$465.64
Value
$258.98
PnL
-$206.66
Record
88%
48649-6911 (55560)
Both legs:
Invested
$195.76
Value
$166.02
PnL
-$29.74
Record
70%
44729-19033 (63762)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.34
Value
$70.39
PnL
+$3.05
Record
66%
14228-7218 (21446)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.18
Value
$83.35
PnL
+$20.17
Record
54%
5994-5097 (11091)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.35
Value
—
PnL
-$34.35
Record
52%
5827-5465 (11292)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$29.25
Value
$32.53
PnL
+$3.28
Record
83%
28668-5871 (34539)
Invested
$43.25
Value
$56.85
PnL
+$13.6
Record
56%
15141-12065 (27206)
Invested
$6.45
Value
—
PnL
-$6.45
Record
54%
14230-12008 (26238)
Invested
$56.44
Value
$57.49
PnL
+$16.28
Record
67%
13816-6882 (20698)
Invested
$7.04
Value
—
PnL
-$7.04
Record
57%
33114-25464 (58578)
Invested
$30.47
Value
$30.78
PnL
+$0.31
Record
93%
20539-1653 (22192)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
63%
19526-11360 (30886)
Invested
$4.58
Value
$6.36
PnL
+$1.78
Record
58%
11123-8150 (19273)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16382-15161 (31543)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $32.53
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $56.85
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $57.49
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0