Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 100¢ · $332 held · ended Oct 25

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

Total Value

$332.4

Combined PnL

-$154.5

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 100¢

+68% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$121.89

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$164.24

Up5 traders

Total Value$210.52

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$9.74

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 67¢	$108.12	$84.01	-$24.12	52% 5773-5390 (11163)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$58.06	$81.51	+$23.45	53% 7312-6500 (13812)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$70.36	$56.54	+$15.3	67% 13654-6785 (20439)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 86.9¢	$47.23	$36.03	-$11.2	62% 40770-24941 (65711)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$50.5	$35.82	-$14.68	56% 15000-11947 (26947)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$35.8	$28.59	-$7.21	63% 19263-11278 (30541)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 94¢	$26.24	$7.84	-$10.6	52% 16061-14851 (30912)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 56.6¢	$67.8	$1.2	-$66.6	60% 10564-7080 (17644)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$58.84	$0.86	-$58.84	57% 32486-24933 (57419)

ply-pm2CTR

Down

Invested

$108.12

Value

$84.01

PnL

-$24.12

Record

52%

5773-5390 (11163)

tmsd-test<$100

Invested

$58.06

Value

$81.51

PnL

+$23.45

Record

53%

7312-6500 (13812)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$70.36

Value

$56.54

PnL

+$15.3

Record

67%

13654-6785 (20439)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$47.23

Value

$36.03

PnL

-$11.2

Record

62%

40770-24941 (65711)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.5

Value

$35.82

PnL

-$14.68

Record

56%

15000-11947 (26947)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$35.8

Value

$28.59

PnL

-$7.21

Record

63%

19263-11278 (30541)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$26.24

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$10.6

Record

52%

16061-14851 (30912)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$67.8

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$66.6

Record

60%

10564-7080 (17644)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.84

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$58.84

Record

57%

32486-24933 (57419)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.