Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 58%
$284.13
-$200.1
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $121.47 | $117.14 | -$4.32 | 52% 5732-5342 (11074) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.3¢ | $71.5 | $72.73 | +$1.23 | 93% 20381-1637 (22018) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 66.1¢ | $59.75 | $55.59 | -$4.16 | 57% 32454-24904 (57358) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.1¢ | $71.32 | — | -$71.32 | 53% 7303-6492 (13795) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $31.2 | — | -$31.2 | 60% 10550-7003 (17553) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.5¢ | $23.2 | — | -$23.2 | 54% 5965-5079 (11044) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.1¢ | $37.27 | — | -$28.47 | 83% 28210-5788 (33998) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $17.8 | $26.95 | +$9.15 | 56% 14956-11913 (26869) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $48.29 | — | -$37.25 | 67% 13565-6732 (20297) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $10.6 | — | -$10.6 | 52% 16033-14835 (30868) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $4.92 | $11.72 | +$6.8 | 62% 40698-24908 (65606) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 66.5¢ | $6.75 | — | -$6.75 | 63% 19117-11233 (30350) |
Invested
$121.47
Value
$117.14
PnL
-$4.32
Record
52%
5732-5342 (11074)
Invested
$71.5
Value
$72.73
PnL
+$1.23
Record
93%
20381-1637 (22018)
Invested
$59.75
Value
$55.59
PnL
-$4.16
Record
57%
32454-24904 (57358)
Invested
$71.32
Value
—
PnL
-$71.32
Record
53%
7303-6492 (13795)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$31.2
Value
—
PnL
-$31.2
Record
60%
10550-7003 (17553)
Invested
$23.2
Value
—
PnL
-$23.2
Record
54%
5965-5079 (11044)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$37.27
Value
—
PnL
-$28.47
Record
83%
28210-5788 (33998)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$26.95
PnL
+$9.15
Record
56%
14956-11913 (26869)
Invested
$48.29
Value
—
PnL
-$37.25
Record
67%
13565-6732 (20297)
Invested
$10.6
Value
—
PnL
-$10.6
Record
52%
16033-14835 (30868)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$11.72
PnL
+$6.8
Record
62%
40698-24908 (65606)
Invested
$6.75
Value
—
PnL
-$6.75
Record
63%
19117-11233 (30350)
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