Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Up 89%
3 arb excluded
$568.76
$38.11
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 62.8¢ | $260.42 | $236.67 | -$23.75 | 53% 7303-6492 (13795) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.8¢ | $148.63 | $236.67 | +$88.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.4¢ | $111.79 | — | -$111.79 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 35.5¢ | $55.44 | $80.11 | +$24.67 | 83% 28210-5788 (33998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.5¢ | $28.48 | $80.11 | +$51.63 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.5¢ | $26.96 | — | -$26.96 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $49.69 | $49.49 | -$0.2 | 52% 5732-5342 (11074) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.5¢ | $23.03 | $49.49 | +$26.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.5¢ | $26.66 | — | -$26.66 | |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Upavg 36.5¢ | $34.5 | $55 | +$20.5 | 54% 5965-5079 (11044) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $80.71 | $60 | -$12.8 | 67% 13565-6732 (20297) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 89.9¢ | $24.02 | $26.73 | +$2.71 | 62% 40698-24908 (65606) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $13.4 | $20 | +$6.6 | 52% 16033-14835 (30868) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $6.4 | $20 | +$13.6 | 79% 54764-14368 (69132) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $10.01 | +$5.31 | 70% 28260-12370 (40630) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.76 | $5.76 | +$3 | 71% 20609-8429 (29038) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 56% 14956-11913 (26869) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $3.15 | — | -$3.15 | 66% 13643-7182 (20825) |
Invested
$260.42
Value
$236.67
PnL
-$23.75
Record
53%
7303-6492 (13795)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$55.44
Value
$80.11
PnL
+$24.67
Record
83%
28210-5788 (33998)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.69
Value
$49.49
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
5732-5342 (11074)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.5
Value
$55
PnL
+$20.5
Record
54%
5965-5079 (11044)
Invested
$80.71
Value
$60
PnL
-$12.8
Record
67%
13565-6732 (20297)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$24.02
Value
$26.73
PnL
+$2.71
Record
62%
40698-24908 (65606)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.6
Record
52%
16033-14835 (30868)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$13.6
Record
79%
54764-14368 (69132)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$5.31
Record
70%
28260-12370 (40630)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$3
Record
71%
20609-8429 (29038)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
56%
14956-11913 (26869)
Invested
$3.15
Value
—
PnL
-$3.15
Record
66%
13643-7182 (20825)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Up — $55
aaa221
Up — $60
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $26.73
devonpoll
Up — $20
BoneOhio
Up — $20
PBot-6
Up — $10.01
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $5.76