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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 64%

Total Value

$187.21

Combined PnL

-$11.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$187.21
Total Shares187
Combined PnL+$20.02
Down7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares245
Combined PnL-$31.9
Up — 42%Down — 58%
Polkadot-Frog
Up

Invested

$106.99

Value

$62

PnL

+$4.19

Record

83%

28182-5775 (33957)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Up

Invested

$53.54

Value

$57.41

PnL

+$3.87

Record

52%

5710-5327 (11037)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$71.8

Value

$54.12

PnL

+$11.81

Record

67%

13511-6719 (20230)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100
Up

Invested

$13.55

Value

$13.69

PnL

+$0.14

Record

62%

40677-24900 (65577)

TM
tmsd-testCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$13.52

Value

—

PnL

-$13.52

Record

53%

7301-6490 (13791)

AS
aswfadq1555CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$15.61

Value

—

PnL

-$15.61

Record

54%

5957-5075 (11032)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.66

Value

—

PnL

-$1.66

Record

59%

14599-10292 (24891)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.53

Value

—

PnL

-$0.53

Record

57%

32436-24893 (57329)

0X
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.2

Value

—

PnL

-$0.2

Record

70%

42089-17740 (59829)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.33

Value

—

PnL

-$0.33

Record

87%

47549-6839 (54388)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

84%

60134-11869 (72003)

DE
devonpoll<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

16028-14827 (30855)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x62bf39ef...631565
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1792948500

Traders in this Market

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $62

+$4.19
PL

ply-pm2

Up — $57.41

+$3.87
AA

aaa221

Up — $54.12

+$11.81

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $13.69

+$0.14
TM

tmsd-test

CTR

Down — $0

-$13.52
AS

aswfadq1555

CTR

Down — $0

-$15.61

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.66
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.53
0X

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.2
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.33
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