CE Sabadell FC vs. CD Tenerife: O/U 0.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$1.7K
$304.86
90¢ → 99.9¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 86.7¢ | $780 | $899.1 | +$119.55 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 18¢ | $279.54 | $465.9 | +$186.36 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
LO looppau | Overavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $299.7 | +$0 | 99% 6814-37 (6851) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $1.05 | $0 | -$1.05 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.