Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CE Sabadell FC win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 48¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 25

Yes48¢No52¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$33.54

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 47.5¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares30,576

Combined PnL+$101.9

No8 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares18,496

Combined PnL-$68.36

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 51.7¢	$15.8K	$15.9K	+$102.06	48% 114-124 (238)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 49¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$60	47% 1968-2204 (4172)
RN1	Noavg 48¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
CA Cannae	Noavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$1.27	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 48.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$6.67	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 48.5¢	$582	$576	-$6	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 48.1¢	$65.25	$69.91	+$4.66	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 48¢	$53.76	$53.76	+$0	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$17.6	$17.42	-$0.18	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 44¢	$13.42	$14.33	+$0.91	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.05	+$0.01	65% 12546-6670 (19216)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$15,778.05

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$102.06

Record

48%

114-124 (238)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$2,940

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$60

Record

47%

1968-2204 (4172)

RN1

Invested

$2,846.4

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

Cannae

Invested

$1,351.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$1.27

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,109.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$6.67

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$582

Value

$576

PnL

-$6

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$65.25

Value

$69.91

PnL

+$4.66

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$53.76

Value

$53.76

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.6

Value

$17.42

PnL

-$0.18

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$13.42

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

65%

12546-6670 (19216)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.