CE Sabadell FC vs. CD Tenerife: Both Teams to Score

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 58¢ · $254 held · ended Oct 25

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$253.55

Combined PnL

$1.36

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 58¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$191.68

Total Shares330

Combined PnL-$0.2

Yes1 trader

Total Value$61.88

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$1.56

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 58.1¢	$187.55	$187.38	-$0.17	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$60.32	$61.88	+$1.56	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3	$2.95	-$0.05	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
RN1<$100	Noavg 57¢	$1.33	$1.35	+$0.02	55% 43492-35800 (79292)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$187.55

Value

$187.38

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.32

Value

$61.88

PnL

+$1.56

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

RN1<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.