Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Real Sporting de Gijón, while the market favors CD Castellón (97%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Real Sporting de Gijón (40%) · Real Sporting de Gijón at 2.8¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

CD Castellón97¢Real Sporting de Gijón3¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Real Sporting de Gijón

Consensus Traders

Real Sporting de Gijón 40%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$85.78

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 2.8¢

-95% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidReal Sporting de Gijón at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Sporting de Gijón

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors CD Castellón 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CD Castellón97%

Real Sporting de Gijón3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Sporting de Gijón2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,087

Combined PnL+$59.45

CD Castellón3 traders

Total Value$125.94

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$26.33

Real Sporting de Gijón — 40%CD Castellón — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Real Sporting de Gijónavg 60.2¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$65.75	50% 1017-1009 (2026)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	CD Castellónavg 39¢	$67.38	$66.97	-$0.41	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	CD Castellónavg 39.1¢	$31.3	$58	+$26.7	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1CTR<$100	Real Sporting de Gijónavg 37.5¢	$22.5	$16.2	-$6.3	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
VeryLucky888<$100	CD Castellónavg 37¢	$0.93	$0.97	+$0.04	58% 31904-23124 (55028)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Real Sporting de Gijón

Invested

$3,025.63

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$65.75

Record

50%

1017-1009 (2026)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

CD Castellón

Invested

$67.38

Value

$66.97

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

UpTheBlues<$100

CD Castellón

Invested

$31.3

Value

$58

PnL

+$26.7

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1CTR<$100

Real Sporting de Gijón

Invested

$22.5

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$6.3

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

VeryLucky888<$100

CD Castellón

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

Research grade

AvoidReal Sporting de Gijón at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Real Sporting de Gijón

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors CD Castellón 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Sporting de Gijón wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.9%

2.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2444.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

2544.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.