Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$909.39

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 99¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares16,512

Combined PnL-$909.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.09

Total Shares1

Combined PnL-$0.01

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 98¢	$16.2K	$15.3K	-$907.5	93% 722-56 (778)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$308.26	$292.79	-$15.47	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2¢	$229.7	$214.27	-$15.43
└ No leg	Noavg 98.2¢	$78.56	$78.52	-$0.04
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$78.66	$80.88	+$2.22	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
└ No leg	Noavg 98.6¢	$59.16	$59.13	-$0.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.3¢	$19.5	$21.75	+$2.25
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.05	$10.23	-$1.82	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$3.26	$3.19	-$0.07	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.15	$0.09	-$0.01	58% 31904-23124 (55028)

Momo63

Invested

$16,170

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$907.5

Record

93%

722-56 (778)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$308.26

Value

$292.79

PnL

-$15.47

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Yes$229.72¢-$15.43

No$78.5698.2¢-$0.04

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$78.66

Value

$80.88

PnL

+$2.22

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Both legs:

No$59.1698.6¢-$0.03

Yes$19.51.3¢+$2.25

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$1.82

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.07

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.