Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 98¢ · $944 held · ended Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$943.92

Combined PnL

-$295.37

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 98.4¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$693.56

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL-$477.55

Yes4 traders

Total Value$250.36

Total Shares432

Combined PnL+$182.18

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 82.2¢	$1.1K	$596.71	-$476.74	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$7.26	$138.86	+$131.6	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$35.87	$83.66	+$47.78	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
RN1<$100	Noavg 42¢	$19.94	$59.78	+$40.05	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$57.68	$25.03	-$32.66	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$24.94	$24.94	+$0	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 91¢	$19.2	$11.45	-$7.75	46% 1532-1780 (3312)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.1	$2.9	+$2.8	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 75¢	$1.05	$0.59	-$0.46	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,073.45

Value

$596.71

PnL

-$476.74

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$7.26

Value

$138.86

PnL

+$131.6

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.87

Value

$83.66

PnL

+$47.78

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

RN1<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$59.78

PnL

+$40.05

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$57.68

Value

$25.03

PnL

-$32.66

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.94

Value

$24.94

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

123987456<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$11.45

PnL

-$7.75

Record

46%

1532-1780 (3312)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$2.8

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.