Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 14¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$526.11

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 14.5¢

-71% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares19,443

Combined PnL-$593.4

No6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,933

Combined PnL+$67.29

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 49.8¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$623.69	52% 5265-4842 (10107)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$43.64	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
CA Cannae	Noavg 50¢	$904.25	$922.62	+$18.37	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 50¢	$611.3	$602	+$12.23	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 43.2¢	$118.06	$133.85	+$15.79	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 51.6¢	$124.96	$123.42	-$1.54	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
HRTrading	Noavg 50¢	$108.55	$110.82	+$2.27	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 42.6¢	$87.6	$100.85	+$13.25	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
RN1<$100	Noavg 56.8¢	$74.87	$67.19	-$7.68	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$3.85	$5.1	+$1.25	50% 8820-8762 (17582)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,437.39

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$623.69

Record

52%

5265-4842 (10107)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,181.82

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$43.64

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

Cannae

Invested

$904.25

Value

$922.62

PnL

+$18.37

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$611.3

Value

$602

PnL

+$12.23

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.06

Value

$133.85

PnL

+$15.79

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$124.96

Value

$123.42

PnL

-$1.54

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

HRTrading

Invested

$108.55

Value

$110.82

PnL

+$2.27

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$87.6

Value

$100.85

PnL

+$13.25

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

RN1<$100

Invested

$74.87

Value

$67.19

PnL

-$7.68

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$1.25

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.