FC Andorra vs. Burgos CF: O/U 6.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$373.41

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 53¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$561.11

Total Shares1,181

Combined PnL+$377.34

Under2 traders

Total Value$712.75

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL-$3.93

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 39.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$125.85	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.2¢	$866.98	$1.0K	+$171.31
└ Under leg	Underavg 90.3¢	$719.41	$422.25	-$297.17
RN1CTR	Overavg 15.4¢	$174.35	$519.46	+$345.11	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 52.7¢	$358.9	$381.39	+$22.5	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 57.2¢	$357.79	$331.36	-$26.43	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 52.6¢	$152.38	$256.31	+$103.93	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
└ Over leg	Overavg 16¢	$53.1	$156.27	+$103.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.6¢	$99.28	$100.04	+$0.76
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 10.6¢	$9.42	$41.65	+$32.23	61% 8719-5662 (14381)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,586.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$125.85

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

Both legs:

Over$866.9839.2¢+$171.31

Under$719.4190.3¢-$297.17

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$174.35

Value

$519.46

PnL

+$345.11

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$358.9

Value

$381.39

PnL

+$22.5

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$357.79

Value

$331.36

PnL

-$26.43

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$152.38

Value

$256.31

PnL

+$103.93

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

Both legs:

Over$53.116¢+$103.17

Under$99.2852.6¢+$0.76

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.42

Value

$41.65

PnL

+$32.23

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.