Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Andorra vs. Burgos CF: O/U 5.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 18¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$915.67

Smart Money Entry

38.7¢ → 18¢

-53% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,346

Combined PnL+$325.04

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares6,045

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 53.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$114.21	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 35.7¢	$1.3K	$677.31	-$632.81	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 52.4¢	$454.13	$659.57	+$205.45	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$446.27	$607.97	+$161.7	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$260.5	$427.22	+$166.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 18.5¢	$185.77	$180.75	-$5.02
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR	Underavg 59.8¢	$856.35	$257.76	-$598.58	72% 2158-825 (2983)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 27.1¢	$197.2	$220.7	+$23.5	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.9¢	$64.59	$132.62	+$68.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 27.1¢	$132.6	$88.08	-$44.53
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 19¢	$183.68	$174.37	-$9.31	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 47.1¢	$7.27	$12.66	+$5.39	61% 8719-5662 (14381)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,327.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$114.21

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,310.13

Value

$677.31

PnL

-$632.81

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$454.13

Value

$659.57

PnL

+$205.45

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$446.27

Value

$607.97

PnL

+$161.7

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

Both legs:

Over$260.550¢+$166.72

Under$185.7718.5¢-$5.02

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR

Under

Invested

$856.35

Value

$257.76

PnL

-$598.58

Record

72%

2158-825 (2983)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$197.2

Value

$220.7

PnL

+$23.5

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

Both legs:

Over$64.5939.9¢+$68.02

Under$132.627.1¢-$44.53

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$183.68

Value

$174.37

PnL

-$9.31

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$7.27

Value

$12.66

PnL

+$5.39

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.