FC Andorra vs. Burgos CF: O/U 3.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$72.55

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 89¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,285

Combined PnL+$84.43

Under3 traders

Total Value$126.83

Total Shares1,153

Combined PnL-$11.88

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 89.4¢	$959.54	$799.89	+$84.18	58% 974-714 (1688)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 98¢	$308.73	$305.67	-$3.06	64% 920-513 (1433)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 98¢	$169.59	$169.51	+$3.31	76% 2919-904 (3823)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 11¢	$123.64	$123.64	-$0	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 77¢	$13.86	$1.98	-$11.88	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$1.21	$1.21	+$0	54% 54083-45963 (100046)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$959.54

Value

$799.89

PnL

+$84.18

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$308.73

Value

$305.67

PnL

-$3.06

Record

64%

920-513 (1433)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$169.59

Value

$169.51

PnL

+$3.31

Record

76%

2919-904 (3823)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$123.64

Value

$123.64

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.86

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$11.88

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.21

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.