FC Andorra vs. Burgos CF: O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$10.43
60.8¢ → 100¢
+64% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Overavg 45¢ | $267.75 | $279.65 | +$11.9 | 51% 1593-1541 (3134) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 97¢ | $227.46 | $206.35 | -$21.1 | 76% 2841-896 (3737) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $200.96 | $199.08 | -$1.88 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 58¢ | $134.56 | $122.96 | -$11.6 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41¢ | $66.4 | $76.12 | +$9.72 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 55.1¢ | $177.62 | $197.6 | +$19.98 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $169.57 | $178.24 | +$8.67 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42¢ | $95.34 | $106.69 | +$11.35 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55¢ | $74.23 | $71.55 | -$2.68 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $74.04 | $72.92 | -$1.12 | 50% 17615-17950 (35565) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $52.9 | $51.75 | +$1.73 | 56% 24841-19200 (44041) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 55.4¢ | $34 | $32.53 | -$1.47 | 53% 15316-13530 (28846) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $5.59 | $6.11 | +$0.52 | 62% 13428-8277 (21705) |
us391Invested
$267.75
Value
$279.65
PnL
+$11.9
Record
51%
1593-1541 (3134)
Invested
$227.46
Value
$206.35
PnL
-$21.1
Record
76%
2841-896 (3737)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$200.96
Value
$199.08
PnL
-$1.88
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$177.62
Value
$197.6
PnL
+$19.98
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
Invested
$169.57
Value
$178.24
PnL
+$8.67
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.04
Value
$72.92
PnL
-$1.12
Record
50%
17615-17950 (35565)
Invested
$52.9
Value
$51.75
PnL
+$1.73
Record
56%
24841-19200 (44041)
Invested
$34
Value
$32.53
PnL
-$1.47
Record
53%
15316-13530 (28846)
Invested
$5.59
Value
$6.11
PnL
+$0.52
Record
62%
13428-8277 (21705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.