Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FC Andorra, while the market favors Burgos CF (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Burgos CF (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Andorra (40%) · FC Andorra at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Burgos CF50¢FC Andorra50¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Andorra

Consensus Traders

FC Andorra 40%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$7.41

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 50¢

-45% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Andorra at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Andorra

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Burgos CF 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Burgos CF50%

FC Andorra50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Andorra2 traders

Total Value$608.88

Total Shares1,143

Combined PnL-$441.95

Burgos CF3 traders

Total Value$539.88

Total Shares1,093

Combined PnL+$449.37

FC Andorra — 40%Burgos CF — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	FC Andorraavg 91¢	$1.0K	$606	-$440.97	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
GO GoalLineGhost	Burgos CFavg 8.1¢	$86.28	$534.5	+$448.22	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
FO foooool<$100	Burgos CFavg 21¢	$3.78	$3.96	+$0.18	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
HRTrading<$100	FC Andorraavg 67.1¢	$3.86	$2.88	-$0.98	55% 2195-1816 (4011)
CA Cannae<$100	Burgos CFavg 7¢	$0.45	$1.42	+$0.97	53% 15491-13677 (29168)

UpTheBlues

FC Andorra

Invested

$1,046.97

Value

$606

PnL

-$440.97

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

GoalLineGhost

Burgos CF

Invested

$86.28

Value

$534.5

PnL

+$448.22

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

foooool<$100

Burgos CF

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

HRTrading<$100

FC Andorra

Invested

$3.86

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.98

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

Cannae<$100

Burgos CF

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

15491-13677 (29168)

Research grade

NeutralFC Andorra at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

FC Andorra

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Burgos CF 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Andorra wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.