Will FC Andorra vs. Burgos CF end in a draw?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$260.2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJ | Noavg 83.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$260.2 | 58% 974-714 (1688) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $359.02 | $454.53 | +$95.5 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $230.5 | $326.78 | +$96.28 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.4¢ | $128.52 | $127.75 | -$0.77 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $78.49 | $78.2 | -$0.29 | 50% 10147-10036 (20183) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $57.56 | $57.56 | -$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71¢ | $20.93 | $20.64 | -$0.29 |
Invested
$1,521.19
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$260.2
Record
58%
974-714 (1688)
Invested
$359.02
Value
$454.53
PnL
+$95.5
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.49
Value
$78.2
PnL
-$0.29
Record
50%
10147-10036 (20183)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.